The question almost always arrives the same way, and almost always on a Monday: "how's the market?" Whoever asks it does not want a national trend or an opinion. They want to know whether to list now or wait, whether to offer under ask or meet it. This page exists to answer that with the numbers from the latest report and nothing else. It gets revised every quarter, and the date of the last revision sits under the headline.
July 2026, from the monthly Florida Realtors report: the statewide median price for an existing single-family home was $425,000, up 3.7% from a year earlier. For condos and townhouses it stayed at $295,000 — exactly where it was twelve months ago. The gap between those two lines is the story of the year, and it is worth understanding before advising anybody.
Two markets inside one state
Single-family keeps climbing, slowly. Condos have been flat for a year. That is not a statistical accident: they are two markets with different rules, and the second one carries costs the first one does not — rising association dues, special assessments for structural work, master insurance policies — and all of it gets subtracted from what a buyer is willing to pay.
Inventory says the same thing. In July, existing single-family homes sat at a 4.5-month supply; condo-townhouse at 7.8 months. Four and a half months is a balanced market, neither side in charge. Nearly eight months is a market where the buyer decides.
And yet more is closing than a year ago. Closed single-family sales totaled 23,870 in July, up 5.1% year over year; condo-townhouse sales totaled 8,194, up 11%. The honest read: this market is not frozen, it is negotiated. People are buying — they are just arguing while they do it.
Metro by metro, because "Florida" means nothing
An agent in Jacksonville and an agent in Miami work in different countries. Here are median sale prices and days on market for the four big metros, from Redfin data for July 2026:
- Miami — $545,000 median. Homes sell in 116 days on average, against 103 a year ago: almost two extra weeks of waiting.
- Tampa — $450,000 median. 66 days, exactly the same as last year.
- Orlando — $415,000 median over the last quarter, down 2.4% year over year. 45 days, against 41.
- Jacksonville — $310,000 median, up 1.9%. 56 days, against 62 — the only one of the four where time to sell went down.
Look at days on market before you look at prices. Price is the result of a negotiation that already ended; days are the negotiation that is happening right now. Miami adding thirteen days while Jacksonville subtracts six are two opposite stories the statewide median hides completely.
What to tell the seller asking for 2022 money
Not that they are wrong. That the market changed shape. There are 203,023 homes for sale in Florida right now, down 8.7% year over year per Redfin, but spread very unevenly between houses and condos. Their neighbor sold in three weeks in 2022 and today the county average is two months. Price is not set by hope. It is set by the buyer who shows up.
The conversation that works does not argue the number, it argues the calendar. A high price does not mean "it will not sell": it means it sells later and, nearly always, for less than it would have if it had come out right. Show them days on market for their ZIP code and the price cuts of the last ninety days. Data argues better than you do.
What to tell the buyer waiting for the crash
That the crash is not in the numbers: single-family prices were up 3.7% year over year in July, and total inventory fell against last year. What did change is their leverage. They can ask today for concessions that were unthinkable three years ago — seller contribution to closing costs, a rate buydown, repairs after inspection.
The mortgage rate is the other half of that conversation. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.66% in the week of August 27, 2026, per the Freddie Mac weekly survey — a year earlier it was 6.56%. It does not come down because someone waited. We cover that separately in the guide on how to talk about rates without stepping into the lender's lane.
Three numbers worth watching next quarter
- Condo months of supply. If 7.8 months keeps climbing, the pressure on condo prices turns into visible declines instead of a flat year.
- Days on market in your county, not the state. It is the fastest-moving indicator and the only one you can put on a kitchen table.
- The 30-year rate. Every half-point move changes what your buyer can pay far more than a 3% price adjustment does.
None of this needs software. It needs somebody to look at the month's numbers and turn them into a sentence a client can use to decide. That, more often than not, is the part of the job that separates an agent from a listings portal.